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Weekly Wrap 24 April

Jessica Amir
April 24, 2020

Though it’s been a negative week for the Aussie share market, light seems to be at the end of the tunnel for some stocks. With the volatility index falling from its 9-year high to a 7-week low, the market is seemingly more tame. However with immediate threats subsiding, the question of when the consequences of COVID-19 will be fully realised is now on the table.

In this week’s wrap, Jessica covers:

  • The sector report: defensive sectors hold fast (0:43)
  • The stock report: as gold spikes, Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) sees an upturn (1:13)
  • Gold shines on ETF leaderboard (3:49)
  • Are we truly headed for the deepest recession in modern history? (5:26)
  • Stock idea: a2 Milk (ASX:A2M) posts positive 3rd quarter results (5:52)

Read Transcript

Welcome to the weekly wrap, I’m JessicaAmir with Bell Direct.

Today we’re covering the share market performance, what the outperforming listed investments are and we’ll leave you with an economic update and give you plenty of stock ideas along the way.

Well first up, it’s been a negative week for the Australian share market but for some stocks the road ahead looks bright.

Now this week the Australian volatility index fell from its nine-year high down to a seven-week low and that means the market is not seeing those wild swings like we had weeks ago.

Now from Monday to Thursday the ASX200 and the broader All Ordinaries lost 5% while those Defensive sectors were more resilient as expected and continue to shine outperforming the market while, the Real Estate sector has been sold down the most as investors are questioning tenants ability to pay their landlords.

Now this week the Aussies share market looks like it’ll close lower for the first time in five weeks but there’s still plenty of green shoots among ASX listed companies.

Now let’s look at the ASX200’s best performers week to date.

Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) is up 11% helped by the rise of the gold price and this all comes despite an ETF fund manager Vanek dropping their major holding in Regis down to 10%.

Pinnacle Investment Manager (ASX:PNI) another star performer up 10%, after three directors took the opportunity to increase their major stake in the investment manager firm.

Now Ord Minett expects Pinnacle (ASX:PNI) shares to grow by about 70% over the next 12 months and this month its shares have already shown its strong momentum they’re up 27%.

Now looking at the other side of the market the worst performers, Southern Cross Media (ASX:SXL), their shares are down 26% and that erased last week’s gains.

Now looking at their monthly performance, they’re tracking low for the third straight month however, investors mutual has taken as a buying opportunity becoming a major shareholder this week but you would think Southern Cross Media will see short term continued downward pressure given 30% of its earnings are from regional TV and many businesses are feeling the pinch and don’t want to outlay advertising because of COVID-19.

All in all though, UBS expects Southern Cross Media shares will see a small bounce particularly following the capital raising.

Now NRW (ASX:NWH) this week lost 21% Monday to Thursday after a fund manager sold down there major holding in the mining contracting firm.

Now I’ve spoken about NRW before because it has low debt to earnings and growing earnings as well and that’s what we all want or well that’s what I want and NRW recently won a $48 million civil contract to upgrade an airport at BHP’s Olympic Dam.

Now UBS backs *NRW* expecting earnings to grow in its iron ore and public infrastructure businesses.

Now, importantly NRW has not been materially impacted by COVID-19, all in all UBS expects (ASX:NWH) share price to grow from a $1.48 to $4.

So you can see despite it being a negative week for the Aussie share market it really pays to look for opportunities on the leader and a loser board.

Now let’s look at some ETF trends, the largest ETF flows in the month of March were in to Australian Equities with Vanguard and SPDR being the most purchased with investors buying the dip.

Now gold has seen the third largest inflows many investors are either topping up the defensive exposure or building in diversification into their portfolios and it makes sense right?

Who doesn’t like shiny things and out performance?

And what I mean by that is, the ETF GOLD for example which can be purchased on the ASX through Bell Direct is up 25% this year while the Aussie share market is down 22%.

So given that gold and Aussie equities have an inverse relationship it really is important to hold gold in your portfolio to smooth out your overall portfolio performance, so if you don’t have gold exposure in your portfolio, now might be the time to start thinking about it.

Meantime looking at the best and worst performing ETFs for the month of March, BetaShares Australian Equities Strong Bear  Hedge ETF (ASX:BBOZ) gained 33% in March, while the worst-performing ETF was BetaShares Geared Australian Equity ETF (ASX:GEAR) down to 47% and it shows you that speculative investors are either taking a bullish or bearish position on the market.

Now on the economic front as we’ve discussed before global equities have been heavily sold down over the past week and quarter as we’re headed for a short and sharp recession.

Vanguard says it could be the deepest recession in modern times with the big punch coming in the second quarter of the year.

Now the investment manager reckons social distancing will ease mid-year and that’s when you could expect the economy and global equities to recover.

Now lastly for a final stock idea, well following a2 Milk’s better than expected third quarter results and mid stockpiling pushing their revenue higher the infant formula business upgraded full year revenue and earnings.

Now full year earnings for a2 Milk are tipped to be 30% higher than last year.

I like this stock because it’s simple defensive and growing its earnings remember share price growth follows earnings growth.

Now a2 Milk is backed by Citi as a buy with a price target of $21.50. Now in closing, remember the economic outlook remains bleak but there’s always green and gold shoots on the ASX.

And remember the great value investor Shelby Davis said, “You make most of your money during a bear market but sometimes you just don’t realize it.”

On that note, I am Jessica Amir from Bell Direct, happy trading and stay safe.

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