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Morning Bell 4 September

Bell Direct
September 4, 2024

Well, the Australian market closed yesterday’s session slightly lower, as consumer and mining stocks weighed on the ASX200, ahead of Australia’s GDP reading for Q2 out later this morning. Economists are expecting 0.3% growth, from 0.1% reported in Q1. The market may see a strong investor reaction if reports are below expectations, as the high-interest rate environment continues to weigh on the economy. Woolworths (ASX:WOW), Coles (ASX:COL) and Endeavour (ASX:EDV) shares were among the hardest hit yesterday, as each of the consumer staples company’s went ex-dividend.

US equities tumbled in the red overnight for the first US trading session of September. Technology heavyweights struggled to rally into the new month and fresh economic data came in weaker-than-expected. The market has seemed to be data dependent recently, as the Nasdaq declined 3.6%, the S&P500 down 2% and the Dow Jones closed 600 points or 1.5% lower.

European markets also closed in the red, with the STOXX600 down 0.97%.

What to watch today:

  • Following US markets overnight, the SPI futures are suggesting that Australian market will drop 1.17% at the open this morning.
  • In commodities,
    • Crude oil is down 5% to US$70.36 per barrel, the lowest since the start of January as muted demand magnified the impact of relatively ample supply. Plus, new data out in China aggravated concerns that the economic growth from one of the largest oil consumers in the world, is unlikely to bounce back this year, after factory demand dropped more than expected in August. So keep watch of energy producers today, including Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) and Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS).
    • Gold is trading slightly lower as the US dollar added pressure.
    • And iron ore is trading in the green after weighing down on our large mining stocks yesterday, as weakness in China’s economic recovery and steel industry sparked yesterday’s iron ore price to drop below US$100 per tonne. BHP Group (ASX:BHP), Champion Iron (ASC:CIA) and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) were all lower.
      • On that note, Fortescue is also set to go ex-dividend today, which may see FMG’s share price fall, as investors take their profits.
  • And the Australian dollar is buying US$67.36, 97.92 Japanese Yen, 51.32 British Pence and NZ$1.09.

Trading Ideas:

  • Bell Potter initiated coverage on Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), the largest solely ASX listed gold mining company. Bell Potter initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation in accordance to their ratings structure. Their 12-month price target is $17.50 and that their current share price of $14.87, this implies 17.7% share price growth in a year.
  • And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal on Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $33.07 to the range of $29.20 to $30.00 over 7 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

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